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The Downes Side: UFC 146 Predictions

In America we celebrate Memorial Day this weekend. We remember fallen soldiers and lost relatives and eat too much at barbecues (which is something we rarely do). And while I’m sure that after I’m dead and gone I’ll be remembered rightfully as the James Joyce of MMA and a voice of a generation, for now I am content to give you another edition of the Downes Side.

This weekend the show rolls back into Las Vegas for UFC 146 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. When you think about it, Las Vegas is the perfect place for Memorial Day weekend. While he hasn’t told me explicitly, I’m pretty sure my father would like me to spread his ashes at a Carrot Top show. I think we can all agree that there’s something about prop comedy that speaks to humanity’s spiritual side.

Stefan Struve (23-5) vs Lavar Johnson (17-5)

The main card kicks off with a heavyweight bout between Stefan “The Skyscraper” Struve and Lavar “Big” Johnson. The 6’11” Struve brings a 7-3 UFC record into the fight after a 1st round TKO of Dave Herman in February. Johnson seeks a quick turnaround after beating Pat Barry only three weeks ago.

For as tall as Struve stands, he fails to utilize it in most of his fights. I find his propensity for flying knees especially perplexing. If I were that tall, I would just throw straight punches, win easily and then spend my free time getting children’s Frisbees out of trees. Lavar Johnson, while not the most technical, brings a lot of power and has never seen the judges' scorecards. If I were that strong, I would just throw big punches, win easily and spend my free time putting nerds’ Frisbees in trees. I see this fight playing out like Struve vs. Browne at UFC 130: Struve will crowd the range, get caught with a big punch and send Johnson home with another 1st-round TKO.

Stipe Miocic (8-0) vs Shane del Rosario (11-0)

Next up is a battle of heavyweight unbeatens as Stipe Miocic takes on former Strikeforce standout Shane del Rosario. A former Golden Gloves champion, Miocic only needed 43 seconds in February to end Philip de Fries’ undefeated streak. With 8 of his 11 wins by knockout, del Rosario hasn’t seen the second round since September of 2008. Now I forgive you for not remembering that because there was a lot going on in the world, like the birth of the person who’s 7th in line to the Norwegian monarchy.

The big story here is Shane del Rosario’s comeback after 14 months off and while ring rust is certainly a worry, I still like him in this fight. I think he’s more explosive than Miocic and a superior grappler as well. He puts this one away in the 2nd and lobs himself up the the heavyweight ladder. He’ll also surpass standard dimension ratio as the second most popular SDR acronym. (He still has some work to do to beat special drawing rights, though.)


Roy Nelson (16-7) vs Dave Herman (21-3)

We get another heavyweight match as Dave Herman looks to beat up our favorite bearded doughy TUF alum, Roy Nelson. Herman looks to rebound from his previous loss to Stefan Struve, while Nelson seeks to get his groove back. Sadly, the only country that Big Country resembles lately is North Korea. Not only does he look undernourished, but after losing three of his last four, he's been about as successful as their recent rocket launch. (See? Current events can be fun!)

Nelson possesses every advantage in this fight and will end his skid against the (mixed martial) artist formerly known as Pee Wee. Herman may have had early success against Struve, but his standup leaves a lot of holes that Big Country will be able to exploit. Nelson drops him with a shot in the 2nd, gets top position and submits “Sasquatch” for the win. While this may not propel Big Country to USA status, he’ll cross over the DMZ and resemble a more respectable nation, like South Korea.

Cain Velasquez (9-1) vs Antonio Silva (16-3)

Again, we have another heavyweight contest (I’m starting to see a trend here) as former champion Cain Velasquez makes his first Octagon appearance since losing the belt against Antonio Silva. “Bigfoot” debuts in the UFC after losing in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix to eventual winner Daniel Cormier. He’s also trying to get some momentum going before he takes Dave Herman to court for gimmick infringement.

Full disclosure, I do have insider knowledge on the Velasquez camp because I once ate at a Mexican restaurant in San Jose that has his picture on the wall. The key here will be for Velasquez to avoid going to the ground. Velasquez has a significant speed advantage that should allow him to move in and out and accomplish this task. While I don’t think he’ll put Bigfoot away, he’ll outwork him and score enough clean hits to earn an easy UD victory. On the bright side, I think Bigfoot's black eyes will create a sympathetic jury should the situation with Herman ever make it to trial.

Junior dos Santos (14-1) vs Frank Mir (16-5)

That brings us to the main event of the evening which, interestingly enough, is another heavyweight fight. The champion Junior dos Santos looks to continue his reign as he steps in against former champion Frank Mir. “Cigano” has won all 8 of his UFC fights, and it appears that he could hold onto the title for a long time. Mir has been cruising through his competition lately with wins over notable fighters such as Mirko Cro Cop, Roy Nelson and Big Nog.

I am not a huge Frank Mir supporter. Maybe it’s because he looks like the stereotypical bad guy from a Revenge of the Nerds movie, or maybe it’s because I still haven’t forgiven him for ruining the body of modern-day Adonis Tim Sylvia with an armbar at UFC 48. Who knows? What I do know is that while Mir’s standup has steadily improved, it won’t be enough against JDS. I’d give him a shot to get a grinding decision victory, but I think that Mir is going to stand there, trade with dos Santos, get clipped and lose in the first round.

That wraps up another enlightening, awe-inspiring edition of the Downes Side. Be sure to follow me on twitter @dannyboydownes and read my blog.   Also, don’t forget to leave comments, thoughts and criticisms (if that’s even possible). May all the American readers have a great Memorial Day, Filipinos enjoy their Flag Day and Ethiopians commemorate Derg Downfall Day responsibly. For those of you living in countries without national holidays and have to go to work -- deal with it.

TUF Live: Semifinal Results

The Ultimate Fighter® Live episode 12 – ‘Reality Check’ – aired Friday evening and saw Team Faber nab both semifinal wins in the final episode of the famed reality series. Michael Chiesa defeated James Vick by knockout at 1:55 of the 2nd round while Al Iaquinta walked away with a unanimous decision victory over Vinc Pichel.

Chiesa vs. Vick
The season's two tallest fighters tested one anotehr's range with jabs and kicks early in the first even as they worked to stay outside of one another's pockets. A struggle in the clinch built momentum as it was eventually Vick who scored a takedown with a trip, then returned the action to the feet where he used his signature boxing to back up Chiesa around the cage with a series of varied combinations. A last-minute takedown and submission attempt by Vick sealed the round in his favor.

Chiesa's sense of urgency led him to take on the aggressor role to open the second. Vick rebounded with his boxing, but Chiesa had found a rhythm and used the momentum to score a big takedown. He quickly mounted Vick and unleashed a series of unanswered strikes that ended the bout in a big way.

“I feel great, it has been quite a journey," said Chiesa, a so-called wrestler who's now racked up two T/KO wins in a row. "A lot of ups and downs but I feel like I’ve earned my spot in the finale and I’m very excited to seize the moment.”

Iaquinta vs. Pichel
The night's second meeting between a Team Faber fighter and a Team Cruz one featured a competitve first round. Iaquinta quickly worked for a takedown and scored two in quick succession. But after Pichel worked his way back to the feet, his poured on his standup, moving forward and connecting consistently. Iaquinta had his own moments, particularly with kicks, but another big takedown toward the end of the first tipped the judges' scorecards in his favor.

Round two started with exciting standup, as Iaquinta worked with a variety of kicks and Pichel continued his targeted strikes. After a quick break to retrieve an errant mouthpiece, the two returned to the center and went blow for blow, with Iaquinta increasingly finding his range on his taller opponent. Both men wore damage on their faces, and Iaquinta worked for one more takedown, only to be rebuffed by his foe. But in the end it was enough, as judges' scorecards gave him the win and a spot at the top of next Friday's finale.

“I couldn’t have done it without a great team," said Iaquinta. "Everyone really helped me out. The coaching staff was just awesome. Now I have the toughest fight of my life ahead of me, and I’m ready for it.”

“The first round was tough to score," said UFC president Dana White of the night's second fight. "Iaquinta definitely came out and won the second round and got that fight. Al has looked good in both his fights. Still moving, still punching and his wrestling was on. This is going to be one hell of a final.”

Title in Hand, the Tough Part Begins for Dos Santos

We’ve been down this road before. A young and exciting champion ascends to the pinnacle of his sport, and the celebration of what is expected to be a long reign begins.

Then it doesn’t. The reign ends with the landing of a fist and a crash to the canvas, and then the search begins again. The latest person to receive this harsh dose of life in the fight game was Cain Velasquez. And the one now being celebrated as the next great heavyweight is the man who beat him for the UFC title, Junior dos Santos.

Dos Santos, who defends his crown for the first time Saturday night in the UFC 146 main event against former two-time champ Frank Mir, fits the mold of the unstoppable young gun. He can end a fight with a single swing of his fist. If that doesn’t happen, he can punish you until the bell or the referee intervenes. He can make you fight his fight, and he will even tease the fans a bit when he decides to fight his opponent’s fight. He has the athleticism we expect from our sporting heroes. And most importantly, he hasn’t shown any weaknesses yet, with the closest we’ve seen yet being a brief look of frustration when his flush power shots didn’t knock Roy Nelson out in August of 2010. It bears noting that he still won that fight via shutout unanimous decision.

But now everything has changed. The hunter is now the hunted, and everyone in the heavyweight division is studying him, looking for the most minor tell that would lead to a reign-ending mistake. Mention that to “Cigano,” and he doesn’t look disturbed in the slightest; there’s only the smile that has become his trademark.

“I like it here,” said dos Santos through manager / translator Ana Claudia Guedes. “I know I have a target on my back, but that's good. I want to be constantly improving as a fighter, and knowing I have to fight to stay here at the top only motivates me more.”

And if you think dos Santos’ 64 second knockout of Velasquez last November earned him a nice long break or some special treatment from longtime trainer Luiz Dorea, come on, you know that’s not the case.

“Absolutely I'm still learning,” said dos Santos. “My coach Dorea always says that when a fighter begins to think he has nothing left to learn, that's the beginning of his end. I am always trying to learn more, to learn different techniques and to improve my game.”

And not to jinx the 28-year old from Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, but he really doesn’t seem to be the type to let his instant notoriety go to his head, though he does admit that things are a bit different from November 11th to November 13th.

“What's changed the most for me has been recognition from fans,” he said. “I am recognized and stopped by people in public a lot more now. And I have a lot more obligations with and interest from the press. Other than that, not much has changed.”

That’s believable, and if you’re one of those cynical types, rest assured that the dos Santos you see when the cameras are on is the same one you get when they’re off. He’s just a well-adjusted, smiling young man who is generous with his time and grateful to be in the position he’s worked so hard to reach. Of course, you could say the same thing for the man he beat for the belt, Velasquez, but it’s always been evident that while the Californian is a professional who does whatever is asked of him when it comes to his outside the ring obligations, he’s not nearly as comfortable with it as dos Santos. Could you picture Velasquez singing Adele songs on TMZ? Me neither. And if anything, dos Santos seems to gain energy from the admiration of his fans.

“I think what I have from my fans is a reflection of what I put out there,” he said. “I believe in treating people well, and I like being nice. It's great to feel that admiration, and to feel that so many people care about and look up to me, I really appreciate it.”

With that out of the way, there’s still a fight to worry about on Saturday night, and to get to Las Vegas, dos Santos had to experience the bane of a fighter’s existence – the opponent switch. With original opponent Alistair Overeem not getting licensed by the Nevada State Athletic Commission, Mir was elevated into the top spot alongside the champion, a turn of events that didn’t seem to faze the Brazilian too much.

“No, I wasn’t let down (by the switch),” said dos Santos. “I don't choose my opponents. I had to tweak a few things, especially given the big stylistic difference between Overeem and Mir - one is a striker, the other a submission specialist; one is right-handed, the other is a southpaw. But we were able to have a really good training camp despite the opponent switch, and I am ready for Saturday night.”

And despite the disappointment of not seeing what was going to likely be a bombs away slugfest with Overeem that didn’t promise to get out of the first round, the histories of dos Santos and Mir lead to a conclusion that might be just as fast and explosive, though this time it may be dos Santos via knockout or Mir by submission.

“Mir is very dangerous,” said dos Santos. “He's a smart guy and a smart fighter. If he sees an opening or a mistake in your game, he is quick to capitalize on it. So you have to stay very focused and precise against a guy like him.”

Mir also has to know that this could be his last shot at championship gold, and that all he needs is a split second to make a dos Santos mistake a fight ending one. No one knows this better than the champion, who saw his mentor, Minotauro Nogueira, appear to be seconds away from stopping Mir via strikes when the Las Vegan turned the tables and submitted the former PRIDE and UFC champ. Asked if Nogueira has given him any pointers on fighting Mir, since the two have met twice, dos Santos’ response is pithy.

“He always gives me advice, and with Mir it was no different.”

If revenge for his mentor is a motive, dos Santos isn’t letting on about it, and that’s fine. The saying is that’s a dish best served cold, and getting worked up about it isn’t going to make the task any easier. So for now, dos Santos’ goal is a simpler one, though even more difficult to achieve. He wants to keep that belt longer than anybody else.

“I think my biggest motivation is just that I love being who I am,” he said. “I love being the champion, and I want to remain champion for a long time, so I always give my best. Wanting to stay on top just motivates me and keeps me focused on my training.”